世界的な海洋生態系への累積的な影響は,世紀半ばまでに2倍以上になると予測されています
Benjamin S Halpern1,2, Melanie Frazier1, Casey C O'Hara1
1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
まとめ
2050年までに累積的な影響が2.2倍から2.6倍に増加すると予測されています. 沿岸地域と赤道地域では 海洋保全のための戦略的管理が必要になります
科学分野:
- 海洋生態学
- 保護科学
- 気候変動の影響
背景:
- 海洋生態系へのプレッシャーは 世界的に大きく増加しています
- 複数のプレッシャーによる累積的な影響を予測することは,持続可能な海洋管理にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 異なる気候シナリオの下で海洋生息地に対する様々な圧力による将来の累積的な影響をマッピングする.
- 10kmの解像度で世紀半ば (~2050) にこれらのインパクトを予測する.
主な方法:
- 10つの主要な圧力 (気候,陸地,漁業など) をマッピング 20の海洋生息地で
- 予測のために2つの気候シナリオを使用した.
- 影響の分布と増加率をグローバルと地域的に分析した.
主要な成果:
- 世界の累積的な影響は2050年までに2.2倍から2.6倍に増加すると予測されています.
- 沿岸の生息地は全体的により大きな影響を受けていますが,特に赤道地帯の沖合地域では,より急速な増加が見られます.
- 海洋資源に依存する国々は 深刻な影響を受ける見込みです
結論:
- 戦略的政策と管理の介入の緊急性を強調しています.
- 将来の影響予測を統合することで,海洋生態系とそのサービスの持続可能な利用と保護が促進されます.
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