1990年から2021年までの早期発症胃腸がんの流行病学的傾向と2036年の予測:2021年世界疾病負担研究からの分析
Yu-Qing Gong1, Chun-Jing Lu2, Yan-Ru Xiao3
1Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Annals of medicine
|September 5, 2025
まとめ
早期発症した胃腸がんは 世界的に懸念される問題であり,大腸がんの発生率は上昇しています. ターゲットに絞った予防戦略は,格差と変更可能な危険因子に対処するために不可欠です.
科学分野:
- 腫瘍学
- 流行病学について
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 胃腸がんは世界の癌死亡の39.0%の原因です.
- 早期発症する胃腸がん (15歳から49歳) の増加は,公衆衛生上の大きな課題となっています.
- これらの癌はしばしば攻撃的な行動を示し 予後が悪い.
研究 の 目的:
- 1990年から2021年の間,早期発症した胃腸がんのグローバルタイムトレンドを分析する.
- 将来の発生率,死亡率,障害の傾向を予測する.
- 年齢,性別,地域,社会人口指数 (SDI) による負担の変動を調べる.
主な方法:
- グローバル・バーデン・オブ・ディジーズ (GBD) 2021データベースを利用した.
- 年齢標準化発生率 (ASIR),死亡率 (ASMR),障害調整寿命年率 (ASDR) を分析した.
- トレンド分析と予測のためのジョインポイント回帰とベイジアン年齢期-コホートモデルを使用.
主要な成果:
- 2021年には,早期発症した胃腸がんの499,800例が世界中で記録されました.大腸がんと胃がんが最も一般的でした.
- 1990年から2021年にかけて,ASIRは結腸がんでは増加したが,他のがん (食道,胃,肝臓,臓,胆管) では減少した.
- 男性は胆管/胆管がんを除いて,より高い負担に直面しました. 喫煙とBMIが高いことが主な危険因子でした. 大腸癌と食道癌のASIR値が上昇している.
結論:
- 早期発症した胃腸がんは 世界的に大きな健康上の負担となっています
- 癌の種類,年齢,性別,地域,SDIには大きな違いがあります.
- 変更可能なリスクに対処し,格差を減らすために,緊急に標的を絞った予防と医療戦略が必要である.
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