2018年から2022年の呼吸器疾患の指標と予測者としての,幼稚園から12年生までの全原因欠席率の評価
Zachary W Oberholtzer1, Seonghye Jeon2, Lillian Fineman3
14ES Corporation, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)
|September 7, 2025
まとめ
学校欠席率は,インフルエンザやCOVID-19を含むコミュニティ呼吸器疾患と弱い相関関係を示しています. 標準化された定義とタイムリーな報告がなければ,公衆衛生の監視のために学生の欠席の使用は信頼できないことを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 公衆衛生
- 流行病学について
- 小児科
背景:
- 学校の欠勤は コミュニティレベルでの呼吸器疾患の発生の早期の指標です
- インフルエンザとCOVID-19に対する学生欠席の予測的価値は徹底的に評価されていません.
研究 の 目的:
- すべての原因による学校欠席率とコミュニティ呼吸器疾患の発生率の相関性を評価する.
- 将来の呼吸器疾患の急増に対する学校欠席の増加の予測値を決定する.
主な方法:
- 2018年秋から2022年春までの米国の4つの学区 (AZ, CA, NV, WI) のK-12の生徒からの欠席率データを活用した.
- 学校の欠席とコミュニティのインフルエンザ/COVID-19症例とインフルエンザに似た疾患の割合の相関を計算した.
- 1~2週間後にコミュニティの疾患が20%以上増加することを予測する,陽性予測値 (PPV) を推定した.
主要な成果:
- 欠席率とインフルエンザの関連は0. 4 (最大0. 8) であった.
- 欠席率とCOVID-19症例の平均相関は2021年から2022年の間に0.1であった.
- インフルエンザのPPVの中央値は0.4で,COVID-19のPPVの中央値は0.3でした.
結論:
- 学校欠席率と呼吸器疾患の相関とPPVは変動し,しばしば0. 5以下でした.
- すべての原因による学校欠席は,コミュニティ呼吸器疾患の不一致の予測因子であり,その症候群監視の有用性を制限する可能性があります.
- 欠勤の定義を標準化し,報告のタイムリーさを改善することで,公衆衛生指標としての欠勤率の有効性を高めることができます.
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