地球温暖化により,森林火災による健康被害が拡大し,不平等が拡大しています

Junri Zhao¹, Bo Zheng^2,3, Philippe Ciais⁴

¹Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China.

Nature

|September 18, 2025

まとめ

地球温暖化により森林火災が激化し燃え放出が増加します 2099年までに森林火災による煙による死亡が6倍に増加すると予測されアフリカは最大の増加に直面しています

科学分野:

気候科学
環境科学
公衆衛生

背景:

温室効果ガスや汚染物質の排出量を増加させる
現在の世界的な森林火災予測は不完全で不確実な気候シナリオの下での政策介入を妨げています

研究の目的:

機械学習のフレームワークを開発し,地球規模で火災が発生した地域や森林火災の排出量を予測する.
将来の気候変動が火災活動,早死,火災による粒子状物質 (PM2.5) に与える影響を定量化する.

主な方法:

解釈可能な機械学習の枠組みの開発
気候変動のシナリオの下での全世界の燃焼地域と野火の排出量の予測
火災によるPM2.5による早死と放射線強制の定量化

主要な成果:

燃焼による炭素排出量は2099年までに23%増加すると予測されています.
森林火災の煙による早死者は 2099年までに年間140万人に達すると予測されており,これは6倍に増加します.
アフリカでは火災による死亡が 11 倍に増加し,ヨーロッパとアメリカでは 1 倍から 2 倍に増加すると予測されています.

結論:

気候変動による火災の発生は世界的に大きな健康リスクをもたらします
森林火災による健康被害は世界的に均等に分布するでしょう
森林火災が公衆衛生と気候に及ぼす影響の拡大に対処するには国際的な連携が不可欠です

さらに関連する動画

03:42

Author Spotlight: Advancing Place-Based Biochar Production for Ecosystem Restoration and Soil Health

Published on: April 5, 2024

1.5K

09:27

Wind Tunnel Experiments to Study Chaparral Crown Fires

Published on: November 14, 2017

10.1K

関連する概念動画

01:50

Global Climate Change

28.7K

Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.

28.7K

01:50

Threats to Biodiversity

26.6K

There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...

26.6K

02:26

Ecological Disturbance

20.7K

An ecological disturbance is a temporary disruption in the environment resulting from abiotic, biotic, or anthropogenic factors, causing a pronounced change in an ecosystem. The impact of an ecological disturbance, which can depend on its intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution, plays a significant role in shaping the species diversity within the ecosystem.

20.7K

01:01

Group Polarization

38.4K

Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.

What is Weather?

Dimensions of Health and Illness

10.6K

The factors influencing the health-illness continuum can be internal or external and may or may not be under conscious control. They are related to the following eight human dimensions, and each dimension is interrelated to one other.