統合された炭素予算における炭素吸収源に対する新興の気候影響
Pierre Friedlingstein1,2, Corinne Le Quéré3, Michael O'Sullivan4
1Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. p.friedlingstein@exeter.ac.uk.
Nature
|November 12, 2025
まとめ
世界の二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量は増加しており,気候変動に影響しています. 森林破壊は二酸化炭素の発生源を悪化させ 気候変動対策の緊急性を強調しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 地球システム科学
- 環境監視
背景:
- パリ協定にもかかわらず 化石燃料による二酸化炭素排出量の増加が地球温暖化を引き起こし 1.5°Cの限界に近づいています
- 気候政策の有効性や炭素吸収源への対応を理解するために,正確なCO2源と吸収源の報告が不可欠です.
- 報告された排出量と吸収量の不一致により,現在の世界の炭素予算の推定には不確実性があります.
研究 の 目的:
- 先進的な観測とプロセスの理解を統合することによって,世界的な炭素予算の推定における長年の問題を解決する.
- 人為的および自然的なCO2源と吸収源のより正確な評価を提供すること.
- 炭素予算の評価に対する信頼を高めることで 気候政策を策定する
主な方法:
- CO2観測における最近の進歩を統合する.
- 気候と炭素サイクルモデルに プロセスの理解を深める
- 新しいデータとモデルに基づいたグローバル・カーボン・予算の見直し
主要な成果:
- 土地の天然の炭素吸収容量は 予想より小さくなっています
- 人為的な土地利用の変化による純排出量は上方修正されています.
- 海の炭素吸収量は陸の吸収量より15%大きいのです
- 気候変動はシンクの効率を低下させ 大気中のCO2上昇に大きく寄与します
- 東南アジアと南米の熱帯雨林は 気候変動と森林破壊により CO2 の源になっています
結論:
- 現在の評価では,土地利用の変化の影響を過小評価し,自然埋地容量を過大評価しています.
- 気候変動と森林破壊は 炭素吸収場を 炭素排出源に変える 重要な要因です
- 森林伐採を止め,地球温暖化を制限することは,地球上の炭素貯蔵を維持し,気候変動を緩和するために不可欠です.
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