ハツカネズミの移動史と現在および将来の潜在的な分布に関する地球的展望

Rattus tanezumi is a highly invasive rodent that has spread rapidly worldwide in recent decades, yet its historical dispersal routes and potential suitable habitats remain insufficiently systematically assessed. This study reconstructed the migration history and projected the future distribution of the species by integrating MaxEnt and Biomod2 models. It aimed to reveal the dynamics of its invasion process in relation to climatic drivers, compare model differences, and evaluate the reliability of the predictions. We found that R. tanezumi spread primarily through shipping and transportation networks, often initially establishing in climatically suitable ports, with expansion limited by climatic boundaries. Current highly suitable areas occur in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America. Analysis identified key climatic thresholds, with survival probability significantly increasing where the mean annual temperature is >10°C and the warmest quarter precipitation is >900 mm. While temperature seasonality had no significant effect, diurnal temperature range exhibited a negative impact, though its strength varied regionally. Contrary to traditional understanding, reliability-tested model projections suggest potential expansion into colder and higher-altitude regions under climate change. This study elucidates the species' invasion dynamics and provides a scientific basis for forecasting range shifts and guiding targeted control strategies.