献血関連血管迷走神経反射に対するロジスティック回帰モデルに基づく簡易スコア尺度の構築

To construct a simple score scale for donation-related vasovagal reaction (DRVR) based on Logistic regression model and evaluate its application value.

A retrospective study was conducted on 5000 blood donors from Zhangjiakou Central Blood Station from January 2018 to January 2023. The baseline data of the blood donors were collected. Logistic regression analysis was performed on them to construct a DRVR prediction model. A DRVR simple score scale was built based on the odds ratios. The score intervals were divided into low-risk, medium risk, and high-risk categories, the application value of the scale was evaluated based on the prediction efficacy of Logistic regression model.

The incidence of DRVR among the blood donors was 4.12%. The Logistic regression model identified eight independent risk factors for DRVR, including advanced age, female gender, low body mass index, first blood donation, hypotension, low hemoglobin level, long blood collection time, and high blood donation volume (all P < 0.05). A simple DRVR score scale was constructed based on the odds ratio values. The scale scores were divided into three intervals: low-risk (total score <6), moderate risk (total score 6-11), and high-risk (total score >11,≤17). The area under the curve(AUC) for predicting DRVR in low-risk, medium risk, and high-risk blood donors based on Logistic regression model were 0.784 (95% CI : 0.742-0.844), 0.806 (95% CI : 0.752-0.883), and 0.842 (95% CI : 0.761-0.925), respectively. The consistency indices were 0.794 (95% CI : 0.705-0.828), 0.800 (95% CI : 0.745-0.852), and 0.839 (95% CI : 0.782-0.917), respectively. The calibration curves did not deviate from the ideal fit. The results of external validation showed that the receiver operating characteristic curve fittings were relatively ideal (all P >0.05), and there were no statistically significant difference in AUC (all P >0.05).

The DRVR simple score scale has a relatively ideal ability to distinguish the blood donors and can provide some reference for quickly narrowing the scope of high-risk groups. DRVR simple score scale has certain application value, but still needs to be continuously improved and optimized.