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An unbiased point estimate is often insufficient to predict a population estimate, such as population mean or population proportion. In this scenario, a confidence interval is used. A confidence interval is an estimate similar to a  sample proportion. However, unlike the point estimate which is a single value, the confidence interval  contains a range of values. These values have lower and upper limits, known as confidence limits, and can be designated as L1 and L2, respectively.
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消費者信頼感と住宅価格の動的な相互依存関係：ブートストラップローリングウィンドウ因果性検定によるエビデンス

Yumei Guan1, Chiwei Su2,3, Yunfeng Wang1

  • 1School of Management, University of Sanya, Sanya, Hainan, China.

PloS one
|January 12, 2026
PubMed
まとめ

消費者信頼感（CC）と住宅価格（HP）は、動的な双方向の関係を持っています。因果関係の方向は、経済状況によって変化し、住宅市場の安定性と政策の必要性に影響を与えます。

キーワード:
消費者信頼感住宅価格因果性経済政策動的関係

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科学分野:

  • 経済学; 行動経済学; 計量経済学

背景:

  • CCとHPの間の相互作用は複雑であり、さらなる調査が必要です。; この関係を理解することは、経済的安定と政策立案にとって重要です。

研究 の 目的:

  • CCとHPの間の双方向の因果関係を調査すること。; 経済状況と参加者の行動が因果関係の方向にどのように影響するかを分析すること。; HPの変動がCCに与える非対称な影響を探求すること。

主な方法:

  • ブートストラップサブサンプルローリング因果性検定を採用しました。; CC-HP関係の動的かつ時間変化する性質を分析しました。

主要な成果:

  • CCとHPの間の動的な双方向の関係を確認しました。; 因果関係の方向は、 prevailing economic conditions と market participant behaviors に依存することを発見しました。; CCの上昇がHPを押し上げる可能性がある一方、住宅は経済的不確実性下でのヘッジ資産として機能し、HPを増加させる可能性があることを観察しました。; HPの変動がCCに非対称な影響を与えることを実証しました。富の効果を通じてCCを増加させる可能性がありますが、 affordability constraints と mortgage burdens を通じて減少させる可能性もあります。

結論:

  • CCとHPの間の関連は相互的かつ時間とともに変化します。; 経済的混乱を管理し、住宅と消費者信頼感市場を安定させるためには、適応的な政策対応が不可欠です。