搾取された海洋硬骨魚類の人口統計と回復の可能性

Equilibrium concepts and the expectation of compensatory density dependence remain fundamental to fisheries science, but stock collapses and an increasing appreciation of environmental factors have raised questions about their real-world applicability. To explore the demographic variability of harvested marine fishes, we have calculated metrics commonly used in conservation biology to describe the demographics for 77 assessed stocks from the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Oceans using life-tables. We found that median annual population growth rates ([Formula: see text]) were centered around 1, and surprisingly, they were only slightly higher when the effect of fishing was excluded. For most stocks, as abundance declined, [Formula: see text] tended to increase and become more variable as would be expected from compensatory dynamics. The population growth of several stocks was sustained by a limited number of years with exceptionally high rates. However, the ability of a stock to increase from low abundance appeared largely independent of life history characteristics and exhibited stronger geographical differences among stocks of the same species (notably Atlantic cod). Life history characteristics alone were poor predictors of annual population growth or future recovery potential, whereas regional factors appeared to be more influential. Overall, recovery potential remained relatively high, with simulations indicating that 62 of the stocks would be highly likely to double in size within 20 years in the absence of fishing. Low recovery potential was exclusively observed in stocks with a low median [Formula: see text] and low variability in [Formula: see text]. These results suggest that understanding stock-specific (rather than species-specific) demographic parameters is necessary to promote sustainable management or develop rebuilding plans for collapsed stocks.