淮北市基于LMDI-LEAP模型的“双减双碳”协同路径研究

The extended KAYA-LMDI calculation model was employed to analyze the impact effects of CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂ emissions in Huaibei City from 2016 to 2021. The LEAP model and scenario analysis were combined to predict the emission trends and peak times of the three gases （CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂） in 2021-2040. The earliest peak times and the optimal degree of emission reduction were obtained. The synergistic emission reduction effect between CO₂-NO_x and CO₂-SO₂ under different scenarios was evaluated using carbon pollution synergistic emission reduction analysis. The findings indicate that the predominant impact on CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂ emissions in Huaibei City was the economic effect. CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂ were diminished under the three policy scenarios of industrial restructuring， clean energy substitution， and comprehensive enhancement in comparison to those under the status quo scenario. Notably， SO₂ was projected to reach its peak in 2030 under the industrial restructuring scenario， while under the clean energy substitution scenario， CO₂ and NO_x emissions would reach their peak in 2025， with SO₂ reaching its peak in the initial scenario year. The most efficacious emission reduction for all three gases was observed in the integrated intensification scenario. The electric power production sector contained all the most important emitting industries of CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂， and coal was the most important energy emission source. The reduction of coal use and the cleaner transformation of power production were powerful ways to reduce pollution and carbon in Huaibei City. The integrated and enhanced scenarios had optimal emission reduction effects on CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂， as well as strong synergistic effects on CO₂， NO_x， and SO₂ emission reduction. The synergistic emission reduction effect between CO₂-SO₂ was better than that of CO₂-NO_x. In CO₂-NO_x synergistic emission reduction， the implementation of emission reduction policies will contribute more to the reduction in CO₂， and these policies will have a different effect on CO₂-SO₂ synergistic emission reduction. In conclusion， a comprehensive and enhanced scenario combining industrial restructuring and clean energy substitution represents the optimal path for pollution and carbon reduction in Huaibei City. This scenario also provides policy recommendations for Huaibei City to achieve the goal of "double carbons."