関連する実験動画
Updated: Jan 21, 2026

Predictive Immune Modeling of Solid Tumors
Published on: February 25, 2020
早産児網膜症(ROP)における治療必要性を予測する最適化された多変量予測モデル
Taku Toyama1,2, Han Peng Zhou3, Sao Sugimoto3
1Department of Ophthalmology, Graduate School of Medicine and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. toyama.ophthalmol@gmail.com.
Background:
Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a leading cause of blindness in preterm infants. However, frequent fundus examinations place burdens on neonates, families, and healthcare staff. We aimed to develop a model to identify low-risk infants and reduce the number of patients requiring screening.
Methods:
We conducted a single-centre retrospective cohort study at the University of Tokyo Hospital (October 2019-December 2024), including infants with birth weight ≤1800 g or gestational age <34 weeks (n = 298). Fourteen variables-birth weight, gestational age (GD), sex, growth velocity (GV), SpO₂/FiO₂ ratio, CRP, platelet count (Plt), PLR, NLR, LMR, SII, haemoglobin, albumin, and infection status-were evaluated at 28, 30, 32, and 34 postmenstrual weeks. We performed logistic regression on all variable combinations and selected the optimal model using the Akaike Information Criterion. ROC analysis was conducted by fixing sensitivity at 1.0 and selecting the threshold that maximised specificity. This threshold was then simulated in a hypothetical cohort of 100 infants to estimate the reduction in exam need.
Results:
The optimal model included GD, sex, GV, NLR_max, Plt_min, and PLR_max. Discriminative performance (AUC) improved with age: 0.70 (28 weeks), 0.78 (30), 0.82 (32), and 0.85 (34). Evaluations at 32 and 34 weeks maintained sensitivity while reducing the number of infants requiring examination by ~50%.
Conclusions:
This model can identify low-risk infants from 32 weeks postmenstrual age, potentially halving the number of patients needing fundus exams. All predictors are routinely available in NICUs. External validation in independent multicenter, multi-ethnic, and international prospective cohorts is warranted before clinical implementation.
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