公園レベル統合エネルギーシステムの信頼性評価指向の支配的動的特性評価

Reliability evaluation of park-level integrated energy systems (PIES) requires capturing the complex interactions among electricity, gas, thermal, and building subsystems, which exhibit typical multiscale dynamic behaviors. Although existing studies have partially considered the dynamic characteristics of PIES, the critical transient responses and the long-term impacts of heat supply interruptions on human health are overlooked. To address these gaps, this paper proposes a reliability evaluation method based on quasi-steady-state simulation. The dynamic behaviors of the electricity, gas, and heating systems, as well as buildings, are analyzed to develop simplified quasi-steady-state models for both energy demand under normal conditions and indoor temperature evolution under extreme scenarios. A new reliability index is then formulated by incorporating the thermal inertia of district heating networks and the temperature tolerance of occupants, forming a comprehensive framework for PIES reliability assessment. Case studies verify that the proposed method enhances the accuracy and interpretability of reliability evaluations, bridging the gap in user health considerations under extreme conditions. The results further reveal that building thermal dynamics play a dominant role in determining the overall reliability performance of PIES.