発生から豊富さを解明する: 絶滅の危機に瀕した歯類の集団をモデル化し,捕獲の確率が低い
Abby E Bratt1, Cheryl S Brehme2, Robert N Fisher2
1Proteus Research and Consulting Ltd, Outram, New Zealand.
まとめ
この研究は,捕獲率が低い場合でも,占有率データを用いて絶滅危惧種の豊富さを予測する新しい方法を開発しています. このアプローチは,軌道管とキャプチャ・再キャプチャデータを統合して,より正確な人口推定を可能にします.
科学分野:
- エコロジー エコロジー エコロジー
- 保護生物学の保護生物学
- 野生生物管理とは,野生生物の管理です.
背景:
- 絶滅危惧種の豊富さを推定することは極めて重要ですが,データ収集コストのために困難です.
- 占有率に基づいた方法は,希少種の伝統的な豊富度推定の費用対効果の高い代替手段です.
- 占有データから直接,特に捕獲可能性が低い種について,豊富さを予測する方法はほとんどありません.
研究 の 目的:
- 占有データから人口の豊富さを予測するための新しい方法論的アプローチを開発し,検証する.
- 捕獲の可能性が低い種の発生と豊富さの間のギャップを埋めるために.
- この方法を南カリフォルニアの太平洋ポケットマウス (Perognathus longimembris pacificus; PPM) に適用する.
主な方法:
- PPMモニタリングからのペア化されたキャプチャ・再キャプチャと存在・不在データ (2012-2022) を利用した.
- 統合ベイジアン分析を用いた推定密度,占有率,検出.
- 占有率と検出の関数としてモデル化された密度で,月間および年間スケールでの豊富さを予測します.
主要な成果:
- 占有率と検出は,密度と正に相関し,密度を予測しました.
- モデルは,密度の変動の有意な部分を説明したが,説明できない変動が残っている.
- PPMサブ集団の月間および年次スケールで,不確実性を考慮して,豊富な状態が成功裏に予測されました.
結論:
- 開発されたアプローチは,捕獲の可能性が低い種であっても,占有データから集団の豊富さを効果的に予測します.
- この方法は,直接的な密度推定が困難である絶滅危惧種の管理に役立つ貴重なツールです.
- 占有プログラムに密度モニタリングを統合することで,難解な種の保全戦略が強化されます.
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