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熱の真のコスト:テキサスの熱関連死亡率推定方法の評価

Jesse R J Rutt¹, Andrew E Dessler¹

¹Texas A&M University College Station TX USA.

|February 13, 2026

まとめ

熱に関連した死亡 (HRD) のカウントは著しく異なります. この研究では,テキサスのHRDの公式の数値が実質的に報告されていない死亡率を示しており,温度の高温が熱に関連した死亡率の大部分を引き起こしていることが示されています.

科学分野:

環境衛生環境衛生環境衛生
エピデミオロジーエピデミオロジー
公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.

背景:

熱に関連した死亡 (HRD) は,公衆衛生上の重要な懸念事項である.
人力資源開発の正確な定量化は,効果的な公衆衛生介入に不可欠です.
HRDを計算するための既存の方法は,異なる結果を生み出し,正確な評価を複雑にします.

研究の目的:

テキサスの熱関連死亡率の推定のための異なる方法論を比較する.
公式HRDの数値が,熱に関連した死亡の真の負担を過小評価する程度を評価するために.
一般的な熱関連死亡率に対する中程度の高温と極端な高温の貢献度を決定する.

主な方法:

最適温度法 (OTM),極熱法 (XHM),過剰死法 (EDM) の3つの異なる方法を活用しました.
2010年から2023年までのテキサス州の死亡率データを分析した.
OTM,XHM,EDMの推定値とテキサス州のHRDの公式数字を比較した.

主要な成果:

最適温度法 (OTM) は,テキサス州の夏の死亡率の2.2%が熱に関連していると推定しました.
エクストリーム・ヒート・メソッド (Extreme Heat Method,XHM) では,死亡者の0.5%が極端な温度に起因し,中程度の熱がHRDの77%の原因であることを示した.
過剰死亡法 (EDM) は,20世紀半ばのベースラインと比較して死亡率が1.7%増加した.
公式の州HRDは (0.3%) 熱による死亡を大幅に報告していないとカウントし,XHMは最も近い推定方法である.

結論:

テキサスの熱関連死者を報告する公式方法は,実際の負担を大幅に過小評価しています.
適度な熱への曝露は,極端な熱よりも熱に関連した死亡率に大きく寄与します.
熱関連の死亡率に関する正確な評価と公衆衛生計画には,複数の方法論を用いた包括的なアプローチが必要である.

キーワード:

テキサスのテキサスは,テキサスのテキサスです.気候変動気候変動過剰な死亡過剰な死亡極端な暑さによる極端な暑さです.熱に関連した死亡率公衆衛生は公衆衛生である.

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