NGHGIに一致する炭素予算を使用して,国レベルでの緩和の進展を追跡する
Konstantin Weber1, Cyril Brunner2, Reto Knutti2
1Institute for Atmosphere and Climate Science ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. konstantin.weber@env.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|February 13, 2026
まとめ
国家残存炭素予算 (RCB) は,現在,温室効果ガス在庫基準に準拠しています. この調整は,世界のRCBを大幅に削減し,2027年までに1.5°Cの予算が枯渇し,多くの国が公平なシェアを上回る可能性があることを示しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 環境政策 環境政策
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 残りの炭素予算 (RCB) は,国の気候変動緩和努力を評価する上で極めて重要です.
- 現在のRCBの推定は,国家温室効果ガスインベントリー (NGHGI) の会計基準と一致していない.
- 矛盾は,グローバルな気候目標と国家責任の正確な追跡を困難にしています.
研究 の 目的:
- 国のRCBの計算をNGHGIの会計基準に準拠させる.
- 更新され,方法論的に一貫したグローバルおよび国内RCBの見積もりを提供するために.
- 1.5°Cや2°Cのような気候目標に向けた国レベルの進展を評価する.
主な方法:
- RCBの計算をNGHGIで使用されているCO2会計の原則と調和させる.
- 1.5°Cと2°CのシナリオにおけるグローバルRCBに対するNGHGIアライナメントの影響を定量化.
- 共通の配分方法を用いてNGHGIに一致する国内RCBを計算する.
- パリ協定で概説されている公平性原則に対して,国のRCBを評価する.
主要な成果:
- NGHGIの調整により,世界の1.5°C (50%) のRCBは2024年までに約100GtCO2 (約50%) 減少し,2°C (66%) のRCBは約200GtCO2 (約20%) 減少する.
- 1.5°C (50%) のNGHGIに一致するグローバルRCBは2027年までに枯渇すると推定されています.
- 2025年までに,64-85カ国が1.5°C (50%) RCBの公平なシェアを上回る可能性があります.
結論:
- RCBをNGHGIの基準に合わせることで,緩和の進展を追跡するためのより堅牢な枠組みが提供されます.
- 現行の国内緩和努力は,NGHGIに一致するRCBと比較して評価すると,多くの国において,公正な炭素シェアの大幅な過剰支出が明らかになる.
- 開発された枠組みは,気候変動対策と説明責任のより正確な国レベルの評価をサポートしています.
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