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中国の高炭素産業と低炭素産業の間の経済的効率の格差と移行ドライバーの機械学習ベースの分析
Zhilin Huang1, Qianyi Zhang2, Yayin Zheng3
1School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China. zhlhuang@stu.edu.cn.
Carbon balance and management
|February 13, 2026
まとめ
低炭素産業と高炭素産業の経済効率を理解することは,気候変動の移行の鍵です. 金融の健全性は,企業に大きな影響を与えます.
科学分野:
- 経済学 エコノミクス
- 環境科学 環境科学
- 気候変動政策 気候変動政策
背景:
- グローバルな気候変動は,高炭素産業と低炭素産業の経済的効率の違いを理解することを必要としています.
- 効果的な炭素ガバナンスと低炭素への移行は,企業の排出管理と経済パフォーマンスの分析に依存しています.
- 企業の変革能力の推進要因を特定することは,政策策定において極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 企業の炭素排出管理の異質性と,中国の産業全体の経済パフォーマンスの異質性を調査する.
- 気候変動の文脈における企業の変革能力の主要な原動力を特定する.
- 炭素プロファイルと業績に基づいて企業を分類するための機械学習モデルをベンチマークする.
主な方法:
- 8つの産業にわたる633の上場の中国企業 (2010-2021) のパネルデータセットを利用した.
- 排出プロファイルに基づいて,高炭素グループと低炭素グループに分類された企業.
- ベンチマークされたランダムフォレスト,XGBoost,LightGBM,および意思決定ツリーモデルは,非線形的な関係と変数の重要性を特定し,ランダムフォレストは優れた性能 (95.7%の精度,0.989AUC) を示しています.
主要な成果:
- 炭素排出量,負債総額,資産総額は,企業の炭素プロファイルと業績を区別する上で最も影響力のある要因でした.
- 収益性指標も,企業を差別化する役割を果たした.
- 高炭素企業は,より大きな移行障壁 (削減コスト,バランスシート制約) に直面しているが,低炭素企業は,政策上の利益を得るためによりよい立場にある.
結論:
- 金融の健全性は,低炭素の変革を可能にするために不可欠です.
- ターゲットを絞った資金調達や,炭素を多く消費する企業に対する柔軟な配給を含む,差別化された政策設計は不可欠である.
- 低炭素セクターにおけるイノベーションと市場拡大のための継続的なインセンティブを推奨しています.
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