ベイジアンネットワークとPLUS-INVESTモデルを統合して,将来の土地利用シナリオの下での炭素貯蔵の空間最適化のために,中国の武江川流域の土地利用シナリオを統合する

Qingshan Li¹, Lele Zhang¹, Jiaoting Peng²

¹School of Management Science and Engineering, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, 550025, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|February 14, 2026

まとめ

陸上の生態系における炭素貯蔵の最適化は,中国にとって極めて重要である.

科学分野:

生態系サービスと気候変動
地域計画と土地利用管理について

背景:

グローバルな気候変動は,地域的な炭素バランスと炭素中立性のために,陸上の生態系における炭素貯蔵の最適化を必要としています.
中国の"二酸化炭素"の目標は,炭素の蓄積を強化するための戦略的土地利用計画が必要であることを強調しています.

研究の目的:

様々な開発シナリオの下で2030年までに武江流域における土地利用の変化と炭素貯蔵分布をシミュレートする.
ベイジアンネットワークモデルを使用して,炭素貯蔵パターンを空間的に最適化します.
炭素中立性の目標を達成することを目的とした土地利用政策のための科学的指針を提供すること.

主な方法:

PLUS (パッチを生成する土地利用シミュレーション) とInVEST (生態系サービスとトレードオフの統合評価) モデルを用いたカップリングされたシミュレーション.
都市開発,生態保護,耕地保護,自然開発を含むシナリオ分析.
ゾーニングと変数スクリーニングのためのベイジアンネットワークモデルを使用した空間最適化.

主要な成果:

武江川流域における歴史的な炭素貯蔵は,北中部で高い値,南西部で低い値を持つ,減少して上昇する傾向を示した.
2030年までに,生態保護シナリオは炭素貯蔵を大幅に増加させ,他のシナリオは減少につながります.
ベイジアンネットワークは,重要な変数を特定し,生態保護,バッファ,開発制限,経済開発のゾーンに区分することを可能にしました.

結論:

生態保護シナリオは,武江流域の炭素貯蔵を強化するのに最も効果的です.
ベイジアンネットワーク分析に基づく空間区分は,土地利用の管理を分別するための枠組みを提供します.
この研究は,生態系における炭素貯蔵の最適化と,中国の"二酸化炭素"目標を達成するための土地利用政策の情報提供のための重要な洞察を提供します.

キーワード:

ベイジアンネットワークモデル炭素の貯蔵炭素の貯蔵とはマルチシナリオシミュレーション空間パターンの最適化武江川流域の流域について

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