熱指数は,エリートアスレティックスの熱関連のリスクを予測するのに役立つのに欠けているものは何ですか?
David Bandiera1,2, Frédéric Garrandes3,4, Jan Kowalski5
1Department of Movement, Human and Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Roma Foro Italico, Roma, Italy.
British journal of sports medicine
|February 17, 2026
まとめ
熱中症 (EHS) のリスクは,エリート耐久アスリート,特に高湿球球温度 (WBGT) で高い. 現在のモデルでは,アスリートにおける熱に関連したリスクの予測精度が不足しています.
科学分野:
- スポーツ医学 スポーツ医学
- 環境生理学 環境生理学
- アスレティックスのパフォーマンス
背景:
- エリート・アスリート競技は,熱中症 (EHS),デッド・ノット・フィニッシュ (DNF) イベント,および医療遭遇 (MED) のリスクに直面しています.
- 湿球球体温 (WBGT) は,アスリートの熱負荷を評価するための重要な熱指数です.
- 環境,個人,人種要因を理解することは,熱に関連したリスクを軽減するために不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- エリート・アスレティクスにおけるEHS,DNF,MEDの結果の頻度を特徴づける.
- これらのアウトカムの環境,個人,人種に関連する変数との関連を評価する.
- アスリートの熱ストレスのためのウェット・バルブ・グローブ温度 (WBGT) の予測精度を評価する.
主な方法:
- 5つの分野における80回の世界陸上競技大会 (2019-2024) に参加した4938人のエリート選手のデータを分析した.
- 統計的手法には,スピアーマンランク相関,ピアソンチ二乗テスト,負二項回帰が含まれていた.
- 様々なモデルの予測能力を評価するために,Leave-one-outクロス検証が採用されました.
主要な成果:
- EHSは平均で8/1000で発生し,WBGTが28.0°Cを超えると16/1000に増加しました.
- DNFとMEDの割合は,マラソン,レースウォーキング,トレイルランニングのイベントでは著しく高かった.
- 平均放射熱は,WBGT (R2=0.04) よりもEHS (R2=0.11) とより強い関連性を示したが,全体的な予測精度は限られていた.
結論:
- エリート級耐久アスリート競技は,熱中症 (EHS) のリスクが高い.
- 高いWBGTと放射温度は,増加したEHSと相関していますが,エリートアスリートにとって十分な予測力が欠如しています.
- 将来の予測モデルは,より高い精度のために,熱への適応や最近の病気などの要因を組み込む必要があります.
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