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過剰な自信は過剰な取引の危険因子ですか?

Étienne Gagnon1,2, Isabelle Giroux3,4, Serge Sévigny5,4

  • 1École de psychologie, Université Laval, GRIF-Jeu, Quebec City, Canada. etiennegagnon11@ulaval.ca.

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まとめ

取引パフォーマンスの過大評価は,個人投資家間の過剰な取引のリスクを高めます. ギャンブルに似たこの認知的歪みは,問題のある金融意思決定の重要な要因を強調しています.

キーワード:
過剰な取引について個人の投資家は個人投資家です.自信過剰 過剰な自信株式取引シミュレーションテクニカルアナリスト テクニカルアナリスト

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Last Updated: Feb 20, 2026

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科学分野:

  • 行動金融は,行動金融に基づいている.
  • 認知心理学とは,認知心理学である.
  • 金融市場 金融市場 金融市場とは

背景:

  • ギャンブルと取引は,リスクを共有し,過剰な行動の可能性があります.
  • ギャンブルにおけるコントロールの幻想のような認知的歪みは,過剰な取引においてあまり研究されていない.
  • 過剰な自信は,過大評価,過度の配置,過度の精度を含む,過剰な取引における潜在的認知的要因です.

研究 の 目的:

  • 金融意思決定のシミュレーションに対する過度の信頼と過剰な取引リスクとの関連性を調査する.
  • テクニカルアナリスト取引における過大評価と過位配置が,過剰な取引の可能性とどのように関係しているかを調べる.

主な方法:

  • 技術分析を用いた70人の個人投資家が,模擬取引作業に参加しました.
  • 過剰評価と過剰配置は,シミュレート取引中に評価されました.
  • 過剰な取引リスクは,適応された問題ギャンブル重症指数を使用して測定されました.

主要な成果:

  • オーバープレイスメントではなく,過大評価で,過剰取引のリスクが低いか高いかによって,投資家が大幅に差異化しました.
  • シミュレート取引における過大評価のレベルが高くなるのは,中等から高い程度の過剰な取引リスクの可能性が高いことと相関していた.
  • 発見は,認知的歪みがリスクを増加させる問題ギャンブルに関する研究と一致しています.

結論:

  • 過大評価は,個人投資家の過剰な取引リスクに関連する重要な認知的要因です.
  • この調査結果は,過剰な取引を緩和するために,過剰な自信を標的とした潜在的な介入を示唆しています.
  • 測定ツールと意思決定タスクの適応を模索し,過剰な取引リスク要因の理解を深めるためのさらなる研究が必要です.