CO2排出量に対するグローバル・バリューチェーンの参加の影響:非線形PSTRモデルに基づく新しい証拠
1School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
Scientific reports
|February 18, 2026
まとめ
グローバルバリューチェーン (GVC) は,スケール,構造,技術的なチャネルを通じてCO2排出量に影響を与えます. 排出量削減を達成するには,調整された改善が必要であり,特に,より高い技術的値を必要とする非OECD諸国には,調整された改善が必要である.
科学分野:
- 環境経済学 環境経済学
- 国際貿易 国際貿易
- 持続可能な開発 持続可能な開発
背景:
- グローバルバリューチェーン (GVC) は,国際生産と炭素排出量に大きな影響を与える.
- GVC参加とCO2排出の複雑な関係を理解することは,環境政策にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- GVC参加とCO2排出の間の非線形ダイナミクスを調査する.
- 伝送チャネル (規模,構造,技術) とその値効果を特定し,分析する.
- GVC-排出ネクサスにおける国間の異質性を調査する.
主な方法:
- パネルのスムーズトランジション回帰モデルは,63カ国のデータ (2000年−2018年) に適用された.
- 産業シェア,輸出強度,および総因子生産性 (TFP) への値効果の分析.
- OECDと非OECDの経済を比較した異質性分析.
主要な成果:
- 構造的効果は,工業的なシェアの値である0.266.6を下回る排出量を減少させる.
- スケール・エフェクトは,輸出強度の値である0.429.9を超えた排出量を増加させる.
- 技術的なチャネルの排出量増加効果は,TFPの0.820の値を超えると大幅に減少しますが,完全に相殺されません.
- OECD加盟国以外の国では,スケール効果による排出量の増加が高く,TFPの基準値が高くなる必要がある.
結論:
- GVCの参加によるCO2排出量への影響は非線形であり,チャンネル特異的です.
- 技術的進歩だけでは,GVCによる排出量の増加を相殺するには不十分です.
- 協調された構造的および技術的改善は,GVCによる排出削減に不可欠であり,OECD加盟国以外の国々では,調整された戦略が必要である.
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