アオテアロア・ニュージーランドの神経内科医の労働力：需要、供給、および予測の2024年分析

To describe the Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) neurology workforce, estimate neurology capacity, trends over time and future projections to assist with health sector planning.

2024 neurology workforce demographics, capacity and productivity were derived from multiple overlapping data sources including a nationwide individual neurologist and public hospital neurology unit head surveys, Health NZ and Royal Australasian College of Physicians data, and annual survey data from the Australian and New Zealand Association of Neurologists. Neurological service demand was assessed using epidemiological data, prior reported demand models and considered local practice patterns. Comparisons were made to our 2014 NZ report, Australian and international data. Projections were made modelling several scenarios.

In 2024, there were 83 individual neurologists in NZ providing 67.3 full-time equivalents (FTEs) including 52.6 public adult, 8.3 paediatric and 6.4 private neurology FTE. The public sector FTE compared with 36 FTE in 2014. The combined adult headcount equates to 1 neurologist per 74 604 people (1.34/100 000) compared with Australia where there is 1 neurologist per 41 000 people (2.77/100 000) and 1 in 14 000 (7.1/100 000) in other high-income countries around the globe. A recent Australian workforce model estimated a minimum demand of 1 neurologist per 28 000 based on updated neurological disease and best-practice management requirements. If current training, recruitment, retention and practice patterns persist, projections indicate there will be a gradual worsening in the NZ neurology workforce over time.

The NZ neurology workforce has increased over the past 10 years, but NZ ranks well below other high-income countries globally, and demand continues to significantly exceed supply. This remains true, even after adjusting for NZ practice patterns which favour generalist over subspecialist care. If current trends continue, the gap is expected to widen rather than narrow over the next 12 years.