eGFRスロープ推定および様々な推定方法間での比較分析のための推定値フレームワーク開発

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health challenge characterized by progressive kidney function decline, often culminating in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and increased mortality. To address the limitations such as the extended trial follow-up necessitated by the low incidence of kidney composite endpoints, the eGFR slope-a surrogate endpoint reflecting the trajectory of kidney function decline-has gained prominence for its predictive power and regulatory support. Despite its advantages, the lack of a standardized framework for eGFR slope estimand and estimation complicates consistent interpretation and cross-trial comparisons. Existing methods, including simple linear regression and mixed-effects models, vary in their underlying assumptions, creating a need for a formalized approach to align estimation methods with trial objectives. This manuscript proposes an estimand framework tailored to eGFR slope-based analyses in CKD RCTs, ensuring clarity in defining "what to estimate" and enhancing the comparability of results. Through simulation studies and real-world data applications, we evaluate the performance of various commonly applied estimation techniques under distinct scenarios. The estimation procedures described in this paper are most suitable when competing event rates are low. By recommending a clear characterization for eGFR slope estimand and providing considerations for estimation approaches, this work aims to improve the reliability and interpretability of CKD trial results, advancing therapeutic development and clinical decision-making.