解釈可能で設定を認識する人工知能アプローチを使用したベンゼン汚染パターンの解明

We investigated benzene variability in an urban environment using an interpretable, setting-based artificial intelligence framework. A seven-year dataset (2017-2023) of hourly pollutant concentrations (benzene, NO₂, SO₂, CO, O₃) measured in Zagreb (Croatia) was analyzed, as were meteorological variables. Multiple-ensemble decision tree models were developed, with hyperparameters optimized using metaheuristic algorithms. The best-performing model, Extra Trees optimized by the Sine Cosine Algorithm, achieved an R² of 0.87. Model interpretation employed Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), followed by PaCMAP embedding and HDBSCAN clustering to identify coherent environmental settings. Seven settings (C0-C6) and one residual group were identified, representing pollution-enhancing, suppressing, and transitional regimes. Two settings dominated benzene extremes. C6 reflected winter stagnation, characterized by strong combustion influence (CO contribution of 11.9%), shallow boundary layers (~290 m), weak winds, and high humidity. C4 represented a synoptic stability regime with enhanced heat fluxes and diminished after the COVID-19 period, consistent with altered anthropogenic activity. Low-benzene settings (C0, C1, C3) were associated with stronger mixing and higher oxidizing capacity, while transitional settings (C2, C5) reflected moderate conditions. Overall, the results show that a small number of environmental settings governed the benzene extremes, providing a transferable and interpretable framework for air quality assessment and policy support.