地球システムリスクを軽減するためのネガティブエミッション
Thomas Gasser1, Armon Rezai2,3, Côme Cheritel2,4
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. gasser@iiasa.ac.at.
Nature communications
|February 26, 2026
まとめ
不確実性を事前気候政策に組み込むことで、新たな戦略が明らかになる。このアプローチでは、長期的な地球システムリスクを軽減するために、より早期の二酸化炭素排出量実質ゼロと計画的な実質マイナス排出量が必要となる。
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 地球システム科学
- 環境政策
背景:
- 現在の気候政策は、決定論的な地球システムを仮定し、事後的に影響を評価することが多い。
- 地球システムリスクを予測するために不確実性を統合する先見的なアプローチは、まだ十分に開発されていない。
主な方法:
- 地球システムモデルと観測データのベイズ的融合を組み合わせた統合評価フレームワークを利用した。
- 地球システム内の物理的不確実性を推定した。
結論:
- 気候戦略開発への事前不確実性の統合は、地球システムリスクを管理するためのより堅牢なアプローチを提供する。
- これには、排出目標と経済的手段の大幅な調整が必要となる。
- 長期的なリスクに対処するには、気候政策設計におけるパラダイムシフトが必要である。
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