北大西洋の多年期の気候変動の予測可能性
1S. M. Griffies, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Route 1, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA. E-mail: smg@gfdl.gov K. Bryan, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08544-0710, USA. E-mail: kbryan@splash. princeton.edu
まとめ
気候の予測可能性は数週間を超えて,特に北大西洋に広がります. グローバルな海洋大気モデルによると,海面温度パターンと関連した10年規模の気候予測は可能である.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- 天気予報は,大気の予測不可能な状態のため,数週間に制限されています.
- 海洋と大気の結合により,長期的な気候変動の予測が可能になります.
研究 の 目的:
- 北大西洋における10年規模の気候予測可能性を調査する.
- 気候予測における海洋-大気相互作用の役割を評価する.
主な方法:
- グローバルカップリングされた海洋-大気モデルを利用した.
- 北大西洋の何十年もの海面温度パターンを分析した.
主要な成果:
- 北大西洋における10年またはそれ以上の気候予測の可能性を特定した.
- 北大西洋の海面温度パターンを,ユーラシアの気候変動と結びつけました.
結論:
- 北大西洋における10年間の気候予測は実現可能である.
- 効果的な大西洋モニタリングシステムは,正確な気候予測に不可欠です.
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