生物兵器のコントロール. 将来の見通しと影響について
R P Kadlec1, A P Zelicoff, A M Vrtis
1Office of the Secretary of Defense, Washington, DC, USA.
JAMA
|August 6, 1997
まとめ
生物兵器及び毒素兵器禁止条約は,監視が欠けている. 病気の発生や不正利用の疑惑を調査することで,違法な生物学的活動を特定し,世界保健安全保障を強化することができます.
科学分野:
- バイオセキュリティと国際法
- 公共衛生の監視 公共衛生の監視
背景:
- 1975年に制定された生物兵器及び毒素兵器禁止条約 (BWC) は,生物兵器を禁止しているが,検証メカニズムがない.
- 140カ国がBWCを批准し,遵守を強化するための法的拘束力のあるプロトコルを作成するための外交努力が続いている.
研究 の 目的:
- BWCの検証能力を強化するための効果的な措置を特定する.
- 違法な生物学的活動を検出するために,高いポジティブとネガティブな予測値を持つ診断手順を提案する.
- BWCの検証を,世界的な公衆衛生および疾病管理イニシアチブと整合させる.
主な方法:
- 提案されたBWC検証措置の評価のための医療診断に類似した推論.
- 潜在的なモニタリング手順の診断精度 (陽性と負の予測値) を評価する.
- 異常な病気の発生と使用の申し立ての調査の有用性を分析する.
主要な成果:
- 提案されているBWC強化措置のうち,高い診断価値の基準を満たすものはほとんどありません.
- 異常な病気の発生の調査と使用の申し立ては,違法な活動を強く示すものです.
- これらの調査手順は,偽陽性告発を最小限に抑えます.
結論:
- 効果的なBWC強化は,高い予測値を持つ診断手順に依存しています.
- 疫病の発生や使用の疑惑を調査することは,非遵守を検出するための実行可能なアプローチを提供します.
- このような措置は,世界的な公衆衛生と核拡散防止の取り組みを同時に強化することができます.
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