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創世記と1997-98年のエルニーニョの進化
1The author is at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 12, 1999
まとめ
強力な気候現象である1997-98年のエルニーニョは,新しい観測システムによって密接に監視されました. このデータは,現在の気候理論に異議を唱え,その強さの予測モデルの予測不足を説明します.
科学分野:
- 気候学 気候学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大気科学 大気科学
背景:
- 1997-98年のエルニーニョ現象は,記録されている中で最も強いエルニーニョ現象の1つでした.
- このイベントには,地球的な気候の影響が大きく関係していた.
- 既存の理論と気候モデルには,エルニーニョの強さを予測する上で限界がありました.
研究 の 目的:
- 1997-98年のエルニーニョ現象を前例のない詳細で記録する.
- エルニーニョに関連した気候変動の変動に関する既存の理論に挑戦し,精錬する.
- 気候予測モデルによるエルニーニョの強さの予測不足の背後にある理由を理解する.
主な方法:
- 新しく完成した熱帯太平洋の大気-海洋観測システムの展開と利用.
- エルニーニョの発生から終了までの継続的なモニタリング.
- 詳細な大気と海洋データを分析する.
主要な成果:
- この観測システムは,1997-98年のエルニーニョの前例のない高解像度データを提供した.
- 収集されたデータは,エルニーニョのダイナミクスの現在の理解に挑戦する複雑さを明らかにしました.
- 分析は,予測モデルによるイベントの強度の過小評価の具体的な理由を示唆しています.
結論:
- 1997-98年のエルニーニョの詳細なドキュメントは,気候変動の変動に関する重要な洞察を提供します.
- 新しいデータは,エルニーニョの際の大気と海洋の相互作用に関する既存の理論の改訂を必要とします.
- このイベントによる理解の改善は,将来の気候予測モデルの精度を高めることができます.
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