全球变暖和海洋碳循环对未来大气二氧化碳的反
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
概括
全球变暖模拟显示北大西洋循环在高二氧化碳水平下减弱和崩. 海洋碳循环的变化对大气二氧化碳的影响很小,海面温度升温减少了海洋的碳吸收.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 生物地质化学生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 为未来气候预测提供了场景.
- 了解气候,海洋循环和碳循环之间的相互作用对于预测未来大气二氧化碳水平至关重要.
- 北大西洋热环流在全球气候调节中发挥着重要作用.
研究的目的:
- 通过物理-生物地球化学气候模型预测未来大气中的二氧化碳和全球变暖.
- 调查气候变化情景对北大西洋热盐环流的影响.
- 评估海洋碳循环对大气二氧化碳度的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了低级物理-生物地化学气候模型.
- 模拟了IPCC开发的各种全球变暖场景.
- 分析了大气中的二氧化碳,全球变暖和海洋碳循环动态的变化.
主要成果:
- 北大西洋的热环循环在所有全球变暖模拟中都会减弱,并且在高二氧化碳度下会崩.
- 预计海洋碳循环的变化对大气二氧化碳的影响很小.
- 与对照模拟相比,大气中的二氧化碳在2100年增加了4%,在2500年增加了20%,主要是由于海面变暖减少了海洋碳吸收.
结论:
- 海洋表面变暖是减少海洋碳吸收的主要驱动因素.
- 海洋生物循环可以弥补减少的碳混合,除了在热环循环崩期间.
- 北大西洋热环流的崩对海洋碳循环和大气二氧化碳水平产生了重大影响.
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