重新审视灭火对布鲁斯兰火灾系统的影响
1U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division, Western Ecological Research Center, Sequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, 47050 Generals Highway, Three Rivers, CA 93271-9651, USA. Center for Environmental Analysis-Centers for Research Ex.
概括
与普遍认为的相反,加利福尼亚州的野火的频率和规模并没有增加. 灭火实际上可能是减轻燃烧增加的影响,城市扩张是破坏的关键驱动力.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 加利福尼亚灌木林野火被认为越来越具有破坏性.
- 这种趋势通常归因于消防政策导致更大,更强烈的火灾.
研究的目的:
- 分析加利福尼亚州的火灾历史数据,以确定火灾频率,规模和强度的趋势.
- 评估灭火和其他因素在野火动态中的作用.
主要方法:
- 自1910年以来,对加利福尼亚全州火灾历史数据库的分析.
- 火灾频率与人口密度之间的相关性分析.
- 评估燃料年龄类与大火发生的关系.
主要成果:
- 自1910年以来,火灾频率和烧毁面积没有下降;火灾规模没有增加.
- 火灾旋转间隔已经减少,但火灾季节的长度没有改变,这表明火灾强度没有增加.
- 火灾频率与人口密度相关,这表明消防在控制点火中的作用.
- 大火不仅仅依赖于旧燃料的年龄类别.
结论:
- 历史数据挑战了灭火导致加利福尼亚灌木地区更大,更强烈的野火的观点.
- 人口密度增加与火灾频率有关,消防在减轻点火影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 燃料年龄类别的操纵不太可能防止大火;城市-野地接口扩张是野地火灾破坏的主要驱动因素.
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