1970年至1997年间芬兰的部骨折以及未来的预测
P Kannus1, S Niemi, J Parkkari
1Accident & Trauma Research Centre, UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland. klpeka@uta.fi
Lancet (London, England)
|August 25, 1999
概括
由于人口老龄化,芬兰部骨折的发病率正在比预期更快地上升. 预测显示,到2030年,这一数字将增加近三倍,因此需要针对老年人骨健康采取积极的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 骨折是全球重要的健康问题,特别是在老年人群中.
- 骨骨折的发病率不断上升,给医疗保健系统带来了压力,需要准确的未来预测.
- 这项研究的重点是预测芬兰50岁及以上人群的关节骨折趋势.
研究的目的:
- 预测芬兰50岁及以上人群中骨折的未来数量和发病率.
- 为了确定部骨折的增加是否超过仅仅归因于人口变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了芬兰国家医院出院登记处的数据,用于芬兰 (1970-1997) 的初级关节骨折治疗.
- 每年每10万个人计算的特定年龄和年龄调整的关节骨折发生率.
- 采用回归模型,预测关节骨折数量和发生率到2030年.
主要成果:
- 在芬兰50岁以上的成年人中,关节骨折的数量从1857 (1970) 增加到7122 (1997).
- 骨折发生率从每10万人中的163人上升到438人.
- 从1970年到1997年,年龄调整后的发病率在女性 (292至467人) 和男性 (112至233人) 中显著增加.
结论:
- 老年芬兰人的关节骨折率在人口变化之外也在增加.
- 潜在的促成因素包括骨矿物质密度下降和老年人跌倒发病率增加.
- 需要进一步的研究来阐明确切的原因,并告知预防措施.
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