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Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Phase Transitions: Melting and Freezing02:39

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Heating a crystalline solid increases the average energy of its atoms, molecules, or ions, and the solid gets hotter. At some point, the added energy becomes large enough to partially overcome the forces holding the molecules or ions of the solid in their fixed positions, and the solid begins the process of transitioning to the liquid state or melting. At this point, the temperature of the solid stops rising, despite the continual input of heat, and it remains constant until all of the solid is...
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 25, 2026

Ice Generation and the Heat and Mass Transfer Phenomena of Introducing Water to a Cold Bath of Brine
08:16

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Published on: March 13, 2017

全球变暖和北半球海冰的扩张

Vinnikov1, Robock, Stouffer

  • 1Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers-The State University of New Jersey, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551, USA. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Post Office Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. Code 971, Oceans and Ice Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, RG12 2SZ, UK. Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, 5200 Auth Road, Room 800, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA. Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, 38 Bering Street, St. Petersburg 199397, Russia.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 3, 1999
PubMed
概括

北半球的海冰面积在过去46年里显著减少. 气候模型证实,这种趋势在很大程度上是由于人类造成的温室气体排放,而不是自然变化.

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科学领域:

  • 气候科学是气候科学.
  • 环境监测环境监测环境监测
  • 大气物理大气物理学

背景情况:

  • 表面和卫星观测显示,北半球海冰面积在过去46年中大幅下降.
  • 之前的研究已经探讨了自然气候的变化,但没有完全调和观察到的海冰损失与模型模拟.

研究的目的:

  • 为了将观察到的北半球海冰趋势与气候模型模拟进行比较.
  • 为了确定观察到的海冰减少仅仅是由于自然气候变化的可能性.
  • 预测未来海冰范围和厚度的变化.

主要方法:

  • 分析了46年的表面和基于卫星的海冰范围数据.
  • 观察到的趋势与地物理流体动力学实验室和哈德利中心气候模型的控制和短暂整合的比较.
  • 使用长期气候模型控制运行来评估自然变化驱动观测趋势的概率.

主要成果:

  • 观测到的北半球海冰面积减少与过渡性气候模型模拟相一致.
  • 两种模型都表明,观察到的海冰趋势明显大于仅仅从自然气候变化中预期的.
  • 由于自然变化的结果,观察到的海冰趋势 (1978-98年和1953-98年) 的概率分别低于2%和0.1%.

结论:

  • 观测到北半球海冰面积的减少不太可能是自然气候变化的结果.
  • 气候模型预测下一个世纪,海冰厚度和范围的持续减少.
  • 人为因素,如温室气体排放,对观察到的海冰减少有很大影响.