2100年全球生物多样性场景预测
O E Sala1, F S Chapin, J J Armesto
1Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina. sala@ifeva.edu.ar
概括
到2100年,未来的生物多样性变化取决于大气中的二氧化碳,气候和土地利用. 土地利用变化是陆地生态系统的主要驱动因素,而生物交换对淡水是关键,地中海和草原生物群体面临着最重大的转变.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 生物多样性对环境变化敏感,包括大气中的二氧化碳,气候变化,植被动态和土地利用变化.
- 预测未来的生物多样性需要了解这些驱动因素与各种生态系统之间的复杂相互作用.
- 之前的研究强调需要综合评估来预测生物多样性轨迹.
研究的目的:
- 为了排名生物多样性变化的不同驱动因素在2100年的重要性.
- 确定最容易受到生物多样性丧失或改变的生物群.
- 确定生物多样性变化预测中的主要不确定性来源.
主要方法:
- 基于大气中的二氧化碳,气候,植被和土地利用预计变化的场景开发.
- 分析生物多样性对这些环境驱动因素的已知敏感性.
- 在陆地和淡水生态系统中对驱动因素影响的比较评估.
主要成果:
- 对于陆地生态系统来说,土地利用变化是主要的驱动因素,其次是气候变化,沉积,生物交换和二氧化碳增加.
- 生物交换是淡水生态系统最关键的驱动力.
- 地中海气候和草原生物群预计将经历生物多样性的最实质性的比例变化.
结论:
- 生物多样性变化的驱动因素之间的相互作用是未来预测中不确定性的重要来源.
- 北方温带生态系统可能经历较少的生物多样性变化,由于先前的土地利用变化.
- 了解这些复杂的相互作用对于有效的保护战略和政策制定至关重要.
相关概念视频
What is Biodiversity?
Biodiversity describes the variety of living things at multiple organizational levels: genetic, species and ecosystem diversity. Species diversity includes all branches of the evolutionary tree from single-celled prokaryotic organisms, bacteria, and archaea, to the eukaryotic kingdoms: plants; animals; fungi; and protists. To date, there have been about 1.75 million species identified, and new species are discovered every week.
Threats to Biodiversity
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
Biodiversity and Human Values
Human civilization relies on biodiversity in many ways. Sudden changes in species biodiversity result in environmental changes that can modify weather patterns and therefore human civilizations.
Introduction to Plant Diversity
From Water to Land
Habitat Fragmentation
Habitat fragmentation describes the division of a more extensive, continuous habitat into smaller, discontinuous areas. Human activities such as land conversion, as well as slower geological processes leading to changes in the physical environment, are the two leading causes of habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation process typically follows the same steps: perforation, dissection, fragmentation, shrinkage, and attrition.
Multi-species Conserved Sequences
Next-generation sequencing technologies have created large genomic databases of a variety of animals and plants. Ever since the human genome project was completed, scientists studied the genome of primates, mammals, and other phylogenetically distant living beings. Such large-scale studies have provided new insights into the evolutionary relationship between organisms.
Although the genome of each species varies greatly from each other, a few sequences are highly conserved. Such conserved DNA...
Although the genome of each species varies greatly from each other, a few sequences are highly conserved. Such conserved DNA...


