注册护士劳动力老龄化的影响
P I Buerhaus1, D O Staiger, D I Auerbach
1Vanderbilt University School of Nursing, Godchaux Hall, Room 512, Twenty First Ave S, Nashville, TN 37240-0008, USA. peter.buerhaus@mcmail.vanderbilt.edu
JAMA
|June 24, 2000
概括
注册护士 (RN) 的劳动力正在老龄化,因为进入该行业的年轻女性越来越少. 这一趋势将导致RN供应减少,可能无法满足未来的医疗保健需求.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健工作人员分析
- 护理的人口统计数据
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 美国注册护士 (RN) 的平均年龄在1983年至1998年期间显著增加.
- 缺乏对RN劳动力老龄化的原因和影响的经验分析.
研究的目的:
- 识别和评估影响年龄分布和RN供应的因素.
- 预测未来的RN劳动力的年龄分布和到2020年的总人数.
主要方法:
- 从1973年到1998年使用美国人口普查局数据对RN就业趋势的回顾性队列分析.
- 根据最近的劳动力趋势,预测长期的RN年龄和就业情况.
- 分析包括60,386名年龄在23-64岁之间的雇佣RN.
主要成果:
- 在RN的平均年龄上升了4.5年 (1983-1998).
- 最近的RN队列显示全职同等数量比早期的同龄人队列低35%.
- 到2020年,RN劳动力规模可能是静态的,但几乎低于预计需求的20%,超过40%的年龄超过50岁.
结论:
- 进入护理行业的年轻女性数量下降是RN劳动力老龄化的主要驱动因素.
- 如果没有干预,RN的劳动力将继续老化和缩小.
- 预计的RN短缺可能无法满足未来的医疗需求.
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