在七国集团国家中,死亡率下降的普遍模式
1Mountain View Research, Los Altos, California 94204, USA. tulja@mvr.org
Nature
|June 24, 2000
概括
人类的寿命正在增加,但死亡率因素仍然不清楚. 这项研究揭示了持续的指数性死亡率下降,使得G7国家的预期寿命和依赖率预测更加准确.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人类的寿命在本世纪显著增加,但死亡率下降的驱动因素和老龄化人口的社会成本尚不清楚.
- 年至十年死亡率变化的不规则性使得准确的预测和对死亡率降低因素的理解变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 分析五十年来G7国家 (加拿大,法国,德国,意大利,日本,英国,美国) 的死亡率趋势.
- 通过识别死亡率下降的一致模式,建立随机死亡率预测的基础.
- 为预期寿命和依赖率提供最新的预测,解决人口老龄化的财务影响.
主要方法:
- 在五十年时间内,G7国家对所有年龄段的死亡率数据进行了检查.
- 统计分析以确定指数趋势和死亡率下降的恒定率.
- 基于观察到的趋势,开发用于预测死亡率的随机模型.
主要成果:
- 在每一个G7国家,每个年龄段的死亡率在过去五十年中以大致恒定的速度呈指数级下降.
- 预期寿命的中位数预测大大高于现有的官方预测.
- 2050年预计的依赖率比官方预测高出6% (英国) 到40% (日本),这表明与人口老龄化相关的成本增加.
结论:
- 死亡率的持续指数性下降为随机预测模型提供了坚实的基础.
- 官方对预期寿命和依赖率的预测可能低估了未来的人口和经济挑战.
- 对持续死亡率下降对社会影响的进一步研究是有必要的.
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