过去1000年气候变化的原因
1Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
概括
全球变暖正在加速,20世纪的温度呈现出前所未有的增长. 太阳辐射和火山活动等自然因素解释了一些过去的变暖,但温室气体强迫现已占主导地位.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 1000年的北半球温度重建为20世纪的变暖提供了历史背景.
- 了解过去的气候变化对于区分自然气候变化与人为影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将20世纪的变暖置于1000年的历史背景中.
- 用重建和气候模型测试各种气候变化机制.
- 评估自然强迫与温室气体强迫在近期变暖中的作用.
主要方法:
- 观察数据与能源平衡气候模型模拟的比较.
- 分析重建的温度时间序列和气候模型控制运行.
- 温室气体的隔离对过去一千年的温度趋势产生强迫作用.
主要成果:
- 在1850年之前的10年温度变化的41-64%归因于太阳辐射和火山活动.
- 气候模型的余量与重建的温度余量保持一致,验证了模型对低频变量的估计.
- 20世纪后期的变暖,当仅考虑温室气体强迫时,与模型预测密切匹配.
结论:
- 温室气体效应已经超过了自然变化水平,这是20世纪后期独特的变暖所证明的.
- 预计21世纪的全球变暖明显超过过去的自然变化和最后的冰川间温度.
- 证据支持温室气体强迫是近期和未来气候变化的主要驱动因素.
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