在加利福尼亚州北海沃德断层沿线发生地震的可能性很大
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science and Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, 307 McCone Hall, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. Mail Stop 300-233, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology.
概括
海沃德断层显示出显著的非地震爬行,表面和深层爬行速度约为每年7毫米. 这种爬行与滑动率相匹配,这表明北断层部分主要独立地震的可能性较低.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 构造学 构造学 构造学 构造学
背景情况:
- 海沃德断层展示了大型地震断裂和非地震爬行.
- 了解爬行行为对于地震危险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化沿北海沃德断层的无地震爬行速率.
- 为了使观察到的爬行与长期滑动率和地震潜力相协调.
主要方法:
- 来自GPS和InSAR的表面变形数据的分析.
- 模拟脱位以推断断裂滑动.
- 识别和分析重复的微型地震.
主要成果:
- 沿着20公里的北段,地表爬行速率大约为每年7毫米.
- 深度爬行速度 (深度4-10公里) 为每年5-7毫米.
- 一个机械模型将当前的爬行与长期滑动率为10毫米/年相协调.
结论:
- 北部的海沃德断层段表现出显著的无地震爬行.
- 这种与锁定南段相邻的爬行可能会降低北段发生重大独立地震的可能性.
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