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极端气候:观测,建模和影响
D R Easterling1, G A Meehl, C Parmesan
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA. david.r.easterling@noaa.gov
概括
气候变化正在增加极端天气事件,影响人类基础设施和野生动物. 观测和建模数据显示,降水量增加和温度极端变化,影响生态系统和物种生存.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 气候变化是一个重大的全球性问题.
- 极端天气事件带来越来越大的风险.
- 社会基础设施和自然生态系统容易受到气候变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候变化对极端天气事件的影响.
- 调查气候极端的观察和建模变化.
- 了解对自然和人类系统的后果.
主要方法:
- 对降水和极端温度的观测数据的分析.
- 评估气候模型对未来极端事件的输出.
- 生物对极端天气反应的记录.
主要成果:
- 降水变化在极端被放大.
- 观察到的变化包括变化的温度极端.
- 气候模型预测极端热量增加,极端寒冷减少,降水量增加.
- 生物系统显示气候诱导变化的速度越来越高.
结论:
- 气候变化显然增加了极端天气事件的频率和强度.
- 这些极端对社会基础设施构成重大风险.
- 野生植物和动物种群正在经历广泛的,气候驱动的变化,包括范围转移和现象学变化.
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