量化人类气候变化预测中的不确定性
1Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, UK. m.r.allen@rl.ac.uk
Nature
|October 18, 2000
概括
最近的气候观测有助于限制未来的变暖预测. 全球气温预计在2036年至2046年期间将在正常情况下上升1-2.5K,尽管模型存在不确定性,但提供了强有力的预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化预测面临着固有的不确定性.
- 从预测的气候反应中量化显著偏差的风险至关重要.
- 以前的风险评估依赖于专家意见,简化模型或通用流通模型 (GCM) 的比较.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来50年的变暖速度与观察到的温度记录和GCM预测相一致的范围.
- 为了限制气候变化多十年预测中的不确定性,使用最近观察到的变化归因于人类影响.
主要方法:
- 对最近观察到的近地表温度记录的分析.
- 与多个一般循环模型预测的反应模式进行比较.
- 评估观察到的气候变暖与模型预测之间的一致性,在一个通常的排放场景下进行评估.
主要成果:
- 预计在2036年至2046年十年,全球平均气温将比工业化前的水平增加1-2.5K,而在"商业仍旧如常"的情景下.
- 预计的变暖范围对气候灵敏度,海洋热量吸收或气溶反应的持续错误是坚固的.
- 随着温室气体变暖和硫酸盐气溶冷却平衡的实质性变化,变暖速度的不确定性增加.
结论:
- 观察到的气候变化对50年气候变暖预测的不确定性提供了强有力的约束.
- 短期变暖的范围相对较强,但长期均衡变暖仍然高度不确定.
- 准确的气候变化风险量化对于有效的减缓和适应战略至关重要.
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