通过自然和人为因素对20世纪温度的外部控制
概括
自然和人类活动都对20世纪的温度变化产生了重大影响. 气候模型显示,外部因素对全球和土地温度有很大影响,预计变暖将继续.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 20世纪的温度变化受到各种因素的影响.
- 了解自然和人为强迫因素的相对贡献对于气候建模至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将观测数据与来自合海洋-大气总循环模型的模拟进行比较.
- 确定自然和人为因素对20世纪温度变化的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用合的海洋-大气一般循环模型.
- 将模型模拟与观察到的全球平均和大规模土地温度数据进行比较.
- 分析了多十年和十年级的温度变化.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功模拟了全球平均值和土地温度变化.
- 无论是自然因素还是人为因素,都对20世纪的温度变化做出了重大贡献.
- 外部强迫因素解释了超过80%的多十年全球平均温度变化和超过60%的10至50年陆地温度变化.
结论:
- 大规模的气候反应受到外部因素的强烈影响.
- 人为全球变暖预计将在标准排放场景下继续.
- 这些发现强调了人类活动在当代气候变化中的重要作用.
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