海面温度和土壤湿度反在1998年俄克拉荷马-德克萨斯干旱中的作用
1National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camps Springs, Maryland 20746, USA.
Nature
|December 29, 2000
概括
1998年俄克拉荷马 - 德克萨斯干旱是由海面温度异常和大气循环驱动的. 区域反,如减少蒸发,持续干旱,直到更大的天气系统介入.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 1998年俄克拉荷马 - 德克萨斯州的干旱达到"尘埃碗"水平,尽管在其他地方成功预测了厄尔尼诺现象.
- 外热带大气对海面温度异常的反应比热带反应更难预测.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查1998年俄克拉荷马 - 德克萨斯州极端的热带外气候的起源和持久性.
- 区分全球远程连接和区域反在干旱发展中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用全球和区域大气模型的机械实验.
- 区域气候反机制的孤立.
主要成果:
- 海面温度异常和有利的大气循环引发了1998年4月至5月的干旱.
- 减少的蒸发和降水产生了积极的反循环,维持了6月至8月的干旱.
- 干旱在秋季结束,因为较强的天气系统克服了区域土壤湿度反.
结论:
- 海面温度异常和大气模式是外热带干旱的关键驱动因素.
- 区域的陆地-大气反显著导致干旱持续.
- 结合物理过程的数值模型可以改善区域气候预测.
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