20世纪90年代中期俄罗斯预期寿命的变化
V Shkolnikov1, M McKee, D A Leon
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Shkolnikov@demogr.mpg.de
Lancet (London, England)
|April 6, 2001
概括
1994年以后,由于与酒精有关的死亡人数减少,特别是中年男性中,俄罗斯的预期寿命显著提高. 虽然儿童死亡率下降,但15-30岁的年轻人死亡率仍然很高.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 俄罗斯的预期寿命在1987年至1994年间大幅下降.
- 从1994年到1998年,这一趋势发生了逆转,死亡率回到1980年代初的水平.
- 驱动这种死亡率改善的因素比最初的下降还不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 分析截至1998年的特定原因死亡率数据,以了解预期寿命趋势的逆转.
- 确定导致1990年代俄罗斯死亡率变化的特定死亡原因.
主要方法:
- 对15-74岁年龄段的特定原因死亡率进行了检查.
- 从1998年开始的比率与1994年 (最低预期寿命) 和1991年 (苏联解体) 的比率进行比较.
主要成果:
- 自1994年以来,死亡率的降低主要是由于中年成年人死亡率的降低.
- 1994年以后,与酒精有关的死亡原因显著下降.
- 虽然儿童死亡率下降,老年人死亡率保持稳定,但15-30岁人群中的死亡率仍然很高.
结论:
- 俄罗斯预期寿命的波动与各种死亡原因的复杂,长期和当代趋势有关.
- 酒精消费在20世纪90年代观察到的预期寿命变化中发挥了重要作用.
- 需要进一步的研究,以充分了解推动这些持续的人口变化的根本因素.
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