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地球气候系统的人为变暖
S Levitus1, J I Antonov, J Wang
1National Oceanographic Data Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NODC/NOAA), Air Resources Laboratory, NODC/NOAA, E/OC5, 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA. slevitus@nodc.noaa.gov
概括
全球海洋在20世纪末吸收的热量明显超过大气或冰层. 这种海洋变暖很可能是由人为温室气体增加所驱动的.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 地球气候系统的组成部分,包括海洋,大气和冰层,在热量含量上表现出时间的变化.
- 20世纪下半叶,这些组成部分发生了重大变化.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较世界海洋,全球大气和地球冰层的时间热量含量变化.
- 研究海洋热量含量观察到的变化的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 从20世纪50年代到90年代对海洋热量含量 (0-3000米深) 的观测数据的分析.
- 利用大气-海洋一般循环模型 (GCM) 结合温室气体,气溶和太阳辐射的辐射效应.
- 将模型模拟与观测数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 所有组件都出现了变化:大气和海洋的热量含量增加,冰层的融化.
- 海洋热量含量增加至少比其他组件大一个数量级.
- GCM模拟与观察到的海洋热量吸收保持一致,考虑到人为因素.
结论:
- 全球海洋在20世纪50年代至90年代间经历了最为大幅度的热量增加.
- 观察到的海洋变暖与人为温室气体的增加密切相关.
- 这表明人类活动在推动海洋热量含量变化方面发挥了重要作用.
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