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在世界海洋中检测人类造成的气候变化
T P Barnett1, D W Pierce, R Schnur
1Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. tbarnett@ucsd.edu
概括
全球海洋的热量含量在过去45年里显著增加. 气候模型显示,这些变化与人类引起的温室气体排放保持一致,这表明已检测到气候变化信号.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 在过去的45年中观察到全球海洋热量含量显著增加.
- 人类产生的气体是已知的气候变化驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定海洋热量含量变化的气候模型模拟是否与观察到的数据保持一致.
- 评估观察到的海洋热量变化是由于自然气候变化的可能性.
主要方法:
- 利用并行气候模型 (PCM) 强迫观察和估计的人为气体.
- 应用最佳检测方法来比较模型输出与观测数据.
- 统计分析以确定信心水平和概率.
主要成果:
- 在PCM模拟中,观察到的海洋热量含量变化的水平和时间特征得到了密切的复制.
- 模型产生的信号在0.05的置信级别下,在统计学上与观察结果无法区分.
- 观察到的或模拟的信号仅仅是由于自然的内部气候强迫而产生的可能性不到5%.
结论:
- 观察到的海洋热量含量变化与人为强迫相一致,加强了对被检测到的人为气候信号的证据.
- 基于模型的海洋热量吸收为气候模型提供了新的约束,需要与观测数据保持一致.
- 需要进一步评估,以确定其他气候模型是否符合这一观测约束.
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