大规模气候变化的非线性影响对野生和养的食草动物
A Mysterud1, N C Stenseth, N G Yoccoz
1Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Nature
|April 27, 2001
概括
北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 不线性地影响挪威野生红鹿和羊的体重. 这种几十年来观察到的反向效应表明,气候变化影响夏季食条件.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 动物学 动物学
背景情况:
- 大规模的气候波动,如北大西洋振荡 (NAO),影响生态过程.
- 以前的研究主要假定气候对野生动物的影响是线性的.
- 有限的研究探讨了非线性气候影响,没有一个表明非单调 (反转) 关系.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 与动物体重之间的关系.
- 要确定NAO对体重的影响是否非线性和非单调.
- 探索将气候变化与动物身体状况联系在一起的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 数十年来对23,838只野生红鹿和139,485只家禽羊的体重数据进行分析.
- 统计检查NAO指数与动物体重在接下来的秋季之间的关系.
- 在NAO和当地气候变量 (温度,降水,雪深) 之间的相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 确定了NAO对红鹿和绵羊的秋季体重的强烈,非线性和非单调的影响.
- 在NAO和当地气候变量之间发现了可比的非线性关系.
- 这些发现甚至适用于冬季能源供应稳定的绵羊,表明间接影响.
结论:
- 纳奥对红鹿和绵羊的体重有显著的非单调影响.
- 气候变化,由NAO代理,影响夏季食条件,影响动物的身体状况.
- 对气候波动的生态反应可能是复杂和非线性,需要先进的分析方法.
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