最近大西洋风活动的增加:原因和影响
S B Goldenberg1, C W Landsea, A M Mestas-Nunez
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov
概括
从1995年到2000年,北大西洋风活动显著增加,有更多的大型风和加勒比地区的影响. 这种由海温升高带来的趋势预计将持续数十年,需要更新的准备策略.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 在1971-1994年期间,北大西洋风活动较低.
- 最近几年 (1995-2000年) 的热带气旋事件显著增加.
研究的目的:
- 分析自1995年以来北大西洋风活动的激增情况.
- 为了确定这增加风季度强度背后的气候驱动因素.
- 预测这个高活动期的未来持续时间.
主要方法:
- 对1971 - 2000年风活动数据的比较分析.
- 风频率与海面温度和垂直风切割的相关性.
- 多十年气候趋势评估.
主要成果:
- 整个北大西洋风活动的翻倍.
- 大型风 (分类3及以上) 增加了2.5倍.
- 影响加勒比地区的风增加了五倍.
- 增加活动的归因是海面温度上升和垂直风剪率降低.
结论:
- 目前高水平的北大西洋风活动与多十年的气候变化有关.
- 预计这种加剧的活动将持续10到40年.
- 重新评估气候适应和减缓战略至关重要.
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