在非洲及时发现脑膜炎球菌脑膜炎流行病
1Epicentre, 8 rue Saint-Sabin, 75011, Paris, France. LewisR@who.imul.com
Lancet (London, England)
|August 11, 2001
概括
脑膜炎发病率的低值使非洲的流行病能够早期发现,从而及时进行大规模疫苗接种. 每周每10万例有5例的门提高了疫情防控和应对能力.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
背景情况:
- 非洲的脑膜炎球菌病流行病往往被发现得很晚,阻碍了有效的干预.
- 及时检测对于实施大规模疫苗接种运动以控制疫情至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估每周脑膜炎发病率作为流行病早期预警系统的有用性.
- 确定最佳的发病率值,以便及时检测和干预流行病.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自马里41个分区 (1989-1998) 的卫生中心和监测中的脑膜炎发病率数据.
- 各种发病率值 (5-20例/100,000/周) 的计算灵敏度和特异性,用于流行病检测.
- 确定了达到发病率值和流行病峰值之间的时间延迟.
主要成果:
- 基于临床的发病率值为5个或10个病例/100,000/周,在检测流行病时达到100%的灵敏度,中位检测时间分别为5周和3周.
- 监测数据显示,由于报告不足,需要5或7例/100,000/周的门来检测所有流行病.
- 10例/100,000/周的发病率值显示88%的疫情预测特异性.
结论:
- 降低脑膜炎发病率值可以提高流行病检测的及时性.
- 5个病例/100,000/周的警报值为调查和疫苗接种计划提供了足够的时间.
- 高质量的监测系统对于准确和有效的流行病检测和应对至关重要.
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