平流层预示着异常天气的出现
1Northwest Research Associates, 14508 Northeast 20th Street, Bellevue, WA 98007-3713, USA. mark@nwra.com
概括
平流层循环的变化先于不寻常的天气模式. 这些平流层事件可以预测未来的热层天气体制,包括北极振荡变化和风暴轨道变化.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
背景情况:
- 平流层循环在地球气候系统中起着至关重要的作用.
- 了解平流层和热层之间的远程连接是改善天气预报的关键.
- 已观察到异常的平流层循环事件,但它们对热层天气的预测能力尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查平流层循环变化与随后的热层天气制度之间的联系.
- 为了确定平流层事件是否可以作为天气模式的预测者.
主要方法:
- 对平流层循环强度的观测数据的分析.
- 平流层事件的发生与表面压力模式的相关性.
- 对平流层事件的时间相对于北极振荡,北大西洋振荡和风暴轨道行为的变化进行检查.
主要成果:
- 在平流层循环中发生的巨大变化,起源于50公里以上,下降到较低的平流层.
- 这些平流层事件之后,出现了异常的热层天气体制.
- 在这些事件期间的表面压力模式与60天内的北极振荡模式非常相似.
- 平流层事件先于北极和北大西洋振荡,风暴轨道位置和中度风暴可能性的极端值的变化.
结论:
- 平流层循环变化是热层天气异常的前体.
- 这些平流层事件显示出未来热层天气体制的可靠预测潜力.
- 这些发现增强了我们对平流层-热层合的理解,并为天气预报提供了新的途径.
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