有证据表明,热带平均辐射能量预算的十年变化很大
Bruce A Wielicki1, Takmeng Wong, Richard P Allan
1NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA 23681, USA. b.a.wielicki@larc.nasa.gov
概括
地球的热带辐射能量预算比假设的更为可变,由云层变化驱动. 目前的气候模型未能捕捉到这种变化,需要改进的热带云模型来更好地预测气候.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 地球的辐射能量预算通常被认为是稳定的在大规模.
- 以前的理解表明,热带辐射能量预算在大气顶层 (TOA) 的变化很小.
研究的目的:
- 调查TOA热带辐射能量预算的变化.
- 将观察到的变化与气候模型模拟进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析了20多年的卫星数据.
- 汇编和检查气候模型模拟结果.
主要成果:
- TOA热带辐射能源预算显示的动态变化远远超过之前的假设.
- 观察到的辐射预算变化主要归因于热带平均阴度的变化.
- 当前的气候模型不准确地预测了热带能源预算中观察到的大变化.
结论:
- 热带云层在调节地球能源预算方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 在气候模型中,急需加强热带地区的云模型.
- 改进的热带云模型对于更准确地预测跨年和十年热带气候变化至关重要.
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