在气候变化的情况下,量化极端季节性降水事件的风险
1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berks RG2 9AX, UK.
Nature
|February 2, 2002
概括
气候变化将增加极端天气事件. 概率气候模型显示,在下一个世纪,英国冬季暴雨量增加了五倍,孟加拉国洪水风险增加.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件分析
- 概率学预测 概率学预测
背景情况:
- 大气中二氧化碳度的上升不可避免地改变了全球平均气候.
- 与预测平均气候变化相比,量化罕见极端天气事件的风险存在重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 应用基于集合的概率预测来量化极端气候事件风险.
- 分析气候模型模拟,以估计极端降水概率的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用19个全球气候模型模拟与通用的二元决策模型.
- 采用基于集合的概率分析来评估极端降水事件的可能性.
- 专注于英国的北极冬季降水量和亚洲季风地区的北极夏季降水量.
主要成果:
- 估计在100年内,英国部分地区的极端冬季降水 (超过正常水平的两个标准偏差) 的概率将增加五倍.
- 确定了亚洲极端夏季季风暴降水的类似概率增加,这表明孟加拉国等地区的洪水风险增加.
- 突出了概率方法对决定性的"最佳猜测"场景的实用性,用于极端事件风险评估.
结论:
- 气候模型的概率分析有效量化了气候变化导致极端降水事件的风险增加.
- 未来的研究应该纳入更大的集合和更高分辨率的场景,以便对区域影响,如河流盆地洪水等进行更强有力的分析.
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