随着气候变化,大洪水的风险越来越大
P C D Milly1, R T Wetherald, K A Dunne
1US Geological Survey, GFDL/NOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA. cmilly@usgs.gov
Nature
|February 2, 2002
概括
人为气候变化增加了全球大洪水的发生频率. 这一趋势具有统计学意义,并预计将继续,影响洪水风险管理.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学 水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化是由大气组成的变化驱动的,加剧了全球水循环,增加了洪水风险.
- 由于自然变化和复杂的溪流流动依赖性,检测人为洪水变化具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 调查大洪水风险的变化 (在盆地超过20万公里的100年排放水平).
- 分析人为气候变化,包括温室气体和硫酸盐气溶对洪水风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用流量流量测量和数值气候模拟.
- 专注于大型河流流域,以评估极端洪水事件.
主要成果:
- 在20世纪,人们观察到大洪水的频率大幅增加.
- 最近,大洪水风险的统计学上显著的积极趋势出现了.
结论:
- 观察到的洪水风险趋势与气候模型预测一致.
- 该研究表明,由于持续的气候变化,大洪水风险的持续增加.
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